A mere eight weeks ago that the young forward found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as his coach admonished him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, doubts remained whether his displays were an indicator or the reason for Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response was far more favourable. As the England international swept in his second to restore Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his coat, opened his arms and roared. Villa marched on to a 10th successive win , having failed to win any of their first six games, are somehow only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Hopefuls?
This is a rather hard proposition to resolve. History, the traditional standing of Villa, indicates otherwise. Additionally, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, even as the victories have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season has the team had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team who have just won 10 in a row, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – but currently the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to trade blows with rivals before hoping Rogers to bail them out with two precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened when facing the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the upright from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of his first as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. Against United, the opposition managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent Villa have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot keep on thrashing the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists another reality where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
- The winger could transform into the performer he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.
This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.
The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the hero positioned himself before the North End when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
